Human-induced climate change increased drought severity in Horn of Africa
Kimutai, Joyce, Barnes, Clair, Zachariah, Mariam, Philip, Sjoukje, Kew, Sarah, Pinto, Izidine, Wolski, Piotr, Koren, Gerbrand, Vecchi, Gabriel, Yang, Wenchang, Li, Sihan, Vahlberg, Maja, Singh, Roop, Heinrich, Dorothy, Marghidan Pereira, Carolina, Arrighi, Julie, Thalheimer, Lisa, Kane, Cheikh and Otto, Friederike (2023). Human-induced climate change increased drought severity in Horn of Africa. Imperial College London.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.25561/103482 Full text from publisher -
Sub-type Working paper Author Kimutai, Joyce
Barnes, Clair
Zachariah, Mariam
Philip, Sjoukje
Kew, Sarah
Pinto, Izidine
Wolski, Piotr
Koren, Gerbrand
Vecchi, Gabriel
Yang, Wenchang
Li, Sihan
Vahlberg, Maja
Singh, Roop
Heinrich, Dorothy
Marghidan Pereira, Carolina
Arrighi, Julie
Thalheimer, Lisa
Kane, Cheikh
Otto, FriederikeTitle Human-induced climate change increased drought severity in Horn of Africa Publication Date 2023-04-17 Place of Publication London Publisher Imperial College London Pages 1-47 Language eng Abstract The Southern part of the Horn of Africa, covering parts of southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, and eastern Kenya, saw below average rainfall for the short rains (October-December) in 2020, 2021 and 2022 as well as the long rains (March-May) in 2021 and 2022. As one of the world’s most impoverished regions, the Horn of Africa is home to millions of people facing chronic food and water insecurity, malnutrition, and limited access to basic services including infrastructure, health care, education, and social welfare. The ongoing drought has turned these underlying conditions into acute food insecurity for over 4 million inhabitants. In order to identify whether human-induced climate change was a driver of the low rainfall, i.e the meteorological drought, we analysed rainfall over the most impacted region in the Southern Horn of Africa, covering parts of southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, and eastern Kenya, for 24 consecutive months, from January 2021 to December 2022, as well as just the individual 2022 March-May and October-December seasons separately. We find that in today’s climate, which has been warmed about 1.2°C by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, the below-average rainfall in the March-May season is a 1 in 10 year event, a 1 in 5 year event in the short rains. UNBIS Thesaurus DROUGHT
EAST AFRICA
CLIMATE CHANGEKeyword Attribution science
Vulnerability and exposure
Extreme weatherCopyright Holder The Authors Copyright Year 2023 Copyright type Creative commons DOI 10.25561/103482 -
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