Investigation of fire regime dynamics and modeling of burn area over India for the twenty-first century.

Bar, Somnath, Acharya, Prasenjit, Parida, Bikash R., Sannigrahie, Srikanta, Maiti, Arabinda, Barik, Gunadhar and Kumar, Navneet, (2024). Investigation of fire regime dynamics and modeling of burn area over India for the twenty-first century.. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 31 53839-53855

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  • Sub-type Journal article
    Author Bar, Somnath
    Acharya, Prasenjit
    Parida, Bikash R.
    Sannigrahie, Srikanta
    Maiti, Arabinda
    Barik, Gunadhar
    Kumar, Navneet
    Title Investigation of fire regime dynamics and modeling of burn area over India for the twenty-first century.
    Appearing in Environmental Science and Pollution Research
    Volume 31
    Publication Date 2024-03-19
    Place of Publication Berlin
    Publisher Springer Nature
    Start page 53839
    End page 53855
    Language eng
    Abstract The characteristics of the vegetation fire (VF) regime are strongly influenced by geographical variables such as regional physiographic settings, location, and climate. Understanding the VF regime is extremely important for managing and mitigating the impacts of fires on ecosystems, communities, and human activities in forest fire-prone regions. The present study thereby aimed to explore the potential effects of the confounding factors on VF in India to offer actionable and achievable solutions for mitigating this concurring environmental issue sustainably. A global burn area (250 m) data (Fire-CCIv5.1) and fire radiative power (FRP) were used to investigate the dynamics of VF across seven different divisions in India. The study also used the maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, population density, and intensity of human modification to model forest burn areas (including grassland). The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) was used to predict the burn area for 2030 and 2050 future climate scenarios. The present study accounted for a sizable increasing trend of VF during 2001–2019 period. The highest increasing trend was found in central India (513 and 343 km2 year−1 in the forest and crop fire, respectively), followed by southern India (364 km2 year−1 in forest fire), and upper Indo-Gangetic plain (128 km2 year−1 in crop fire). The FRP has varied significantly across the divisions, with the north-eastern Himalayas exhibiting the highest FRP hotspot. The maximum and minimum temperatures have the greatest influence on forest fires, according to Random Forest (RF) modeling. The estimated pre-monsoonal burn area for 2050 and 2050 future scenarios suggested a more frequent forest fire occurrence across India, particularly in southern and central India. A comprehensive forest fire control policy is therefore essential to safeguard and conserve forest cover in the regions, affected by forest fire periodically.
    Copyright Holder Springer Nature
    Copyright Year 2024
    Copyright type Creative commons
    DOI 10.1007/s11356-024-32922-w
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    Created: Tue, 05 Nov 2024, 01:07:08 JST by Aarti Basnyat on behalf of UNU EHS