The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards
Thomas,Jennifer A., Barnard, Patrick L., Vitousek, Sean, Erikson, Li H., Parker, Kai, Nederhoff, Kees, Befus, Kevin M. and Shirzaei, Manoochehr, (2024). The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards. Scientific Reports, 14 25814 (2024)-n/a
Document type:
Article
Collection:
-
Sub-type Journal article Author Thomas,Jennifer A.
Barnard, Patrick L.
Vitousek, Sean
Erikson, Li H.
Parker, Kai
Nederhoff, Kees
Befus, Kevin M.
Shirzaei, ManoochehrTitle The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards Appearing in Scientific Reports Volume 14 Publication Date 2024-10-28 Place of Publication Berlin Publisher Springer Nature Start page 25814 (2024) End page n/a Language eng Abstract Accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and changing storm patterns will increasingly expose barrier islands to coastal hazards, including flooding, erosion, and rising groundwater tables. We assess the exposure of Cape Lookout National Seashore, a barrier island system in North Carolina (USA), to projected SLR and storm hazards over the twenty-first century. We estimate that with 0.5 m of SLR, 47% of current subaerial barrier island area would be flooded daily, and the 1-year return period storm would flood 74%. For 20-year return period storms, over 85% is projected to be flooded for any SLR. The modelled groundwater table is already shallow (< 2 m deep), and while projected to shoal to the land surface with SLR, marine flooding is projected to overtake areas with emergent groundwater. Projected shoreline retreat reaches an average of 178 m with 1 m of SLR and no interventions, which is over 60% of the current island width at narrower locations. Compounding these hazards is subsidence, with one-third of the study area currently lowering at > 2 mm/yr. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of managing natural barrier systems such as those managed by federal park systems tasked with maintaining natural ecosystems and protecting cultural resources. Copyright Holder author(s) Copyright Year 2024 Copyright type Creative commons DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76749-4 -
Citation counts Search Google Scholar Access Statistics: 29 Abstract Views - Detailed Statistics Created: Wed, 30 Oct 2024, 00:28:27 JST by Haideh Beigi on behalf of UNU INWEH