The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards

Thomas,Jennifer A., Barnard, Patrick L., Vitousek, Sean, Erikson, Li H., Parker, Kai, Nederhoff, Kees, Befus, Kevin M. and Shirzaei, Manoochehr, (2024). The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards. Scientific Reports, 14 25814 (2024)-n/a

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  • Sub-type Journal article
    Author Thomas,Jennifer A.
    Barnard, Patrick L.
    Vitousek, Sean
    Erikson, Li H.
    Parker, Kai
    Nederhoff, Kees
    Befus, Kevin M.
    Shirzaei, Manoochehr
    Title The projected exposure and response of a natural barrier island system to climate-driven coastal hazards
    Appearing in Scientific Reports
    Volume 14
    Publication Date 2024-10-28
    Place of Publication Berlin
    Publisher Springer Nature
    Start page 25814 (2024)
    End page n/a
    Language eng
    Abstract Accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and changing storm patterns will increasingly expose barrier islands to coastal hazards, including flooding, erosion, and rising groundwater tables. We assess the exposure of Cape Lookout National Seashore, a barrier island system in North Carolina (USA), to projected SLR and storm hazards over the twenty-first century. We estimate that with 0.5 m of SLR, 47% of current subaerial barrier island area would be flooded daily, and the 1-year return period storm would flood 74%. For 20-year return period storms, over 85% is projected to be flooded for any SLR. The modelled groundwater table is already shallow (< 2 m deep), and while projected to shoal to the land surface with SLR, marine flooding is projected to overtake areas with emergent groundwater. Projected shoreline retreat reaches an average of 178 m with 1 m of SLR and no interventions, which is over 60% of the current island width at narrower locations. Compounding these hazards is subsidence, with one-third of the study area currently lowering at > 2 mm/yr. Our results demonstrate the difficulty of managing natural barrier systems such as those managed by federal park systems tasked with maintaining natural ecosystems and protecting cultural resources.
    Copyright Holder author(s)
    Copyright Year 2024
    Copyright type Creative commons
    DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76749-4
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    Created: Wed, 30 Oct 2024, 00:28:27 JST by Haideh Beigi on behalf of UNU INWEH