The Public Health Risks of Waterborne Pathogen Exposure Under a Climate Change Scenario in Indonesia

Setiawati, Martiwi Diah, Jarzebski, Marcin Pawel, Miura, Fuminari, Mishra, Binaya K. and Fukushi, Kensuke, "The Public Health Risks of Waterborne Pathogen Exposure Under a Climate Change Scenario in Indonesia" in Ecological Footprints of Climate Change (Cham: Springer Cham, 2023), 607-624.

Document type:
Book Chapter

  • Author Setiawati, Martiwi Diah
    Jarzebski, Marcin Pawel
    Miura, Fuminari
    Mishra, Binaya K.
    Fukushi, Kensuke
    Chapter Title The Public Health Risks of Waterborne Pathogen Exposure Under a Climate Change Scenario in Indonesia
    Book Title Ecological Footprints of Climate Change
    Publication Date 2023-01-02
    Place of Publication Cham
    Publisher Springer Cham
    Start page 607
    End page 624
    Language eng
    Abstract Indonesia, particularly in the urban area, is prone to extreme events, especially floods. In addition, the duration, frequency, and intensity of such disasters are projected to increase due to the climate change. However, in Indonesia, little is known about the effects of those climate disasters on human health. Given the population’s extremely limited adaptive capacity, this is a critical information gap. We estimated the risk probability of waterborne diseases caused by flood utilizing the quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) approach. We used the RCP 4.5 climate scenario of daily precipitation data of MRI-CGCM 3, MIROC5, HadGEM to determine the future projection of waterborne disease under the flood 50-year return period scenario in 2030. In two of the main cities in Indonesia, Medan and Surabaya, we looked at norovirus as a worst-case scenario waterborne disease. We found that the mean probability of the health risk during the extreme event in the future is 0.079 (increased by 22%) and 0.12 (increased by 35%) in Medan and Surabaya, respectively. The total number of infected people will have at least a twofold increase in Medan and Surabaya. It is critical to address the growing risk of norovirus in the face of climate change and to find local context-relevant adaptation measures by conducting a workshop with local stakeholders in each city. The most relevant and urgent actions listed during the workshop were raising awareness in hygiene and behavior during the flood, increasing green space, and providing leak-proof communal septic tanks.
    Keyword Climate adaptation
    Climate scenario
    Waterborne diseases
    Copyright Holder The Editor(s) (as applicable) and the Author(s)
    Copyright Year 2022
    Copyright type All rights reserved
    ISBN 9783031155000
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    Created: Wed, 23 Aug 2023, 14:36:21 JST by Hanna Takemoto on behalf of UNU IAS