Compound impacts from droughts and structural vulnerability on human mobility

Thalheimer, Lisa, Choquette-Levy, Nicolas and Garip, Filiz, (2022). Compound impacts from droughts and structural vulnerability on human mobility. iScience, 25(12), n/a-n/a

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  • Sub-type Journal article
    Author Thalheimer, Lisa
    Choquette-Levy, Nicolas
    Garip, Filiz
    Title Compound impacts from droughts and structural vulnerability on human mobility
    Appearing in iScience
    Volume 25
    Issue No. 12
    Publication Date 2022-11-23
    Place of Publication Amsterdam
    Publisher Elsevier
    Start page n/a
    End page n/a
    Language eng
    Abstract Extreme dry events already disrupt populations’ ability to migrate. In a warming climate, compound drought events could amplify vulnerability and drive forced migration. Here, we contribute the first multi-method research design on societal impacts from compound drought events. We show how mobility patterns are shaped by the intersection of drought and social vulnerability factors in three drought-prone countries – Madagascar, Nepal, and Mexico. We find that internal migration in agricultural communities in Mexico increased by 14 to 24 basis points from 1991 to 2018 and will prospectively increase by 2 to 15 basis points in Nepal in case of a compound drought event in 2025. We show that consecutive drought events exacerbate structural vulnerabilities, limiting migrants’ adaptation options, including long-range migration. We conclude that the additional social pre-conditions, e.g., social isolation and lack of accurate information, ultimately limit migration as an adaptation option for households vulnerable to compound drought events.
    Keyword Compound events
    Structural vulnerability
    Copyright Holder The Authors
    Copyright Year 2022
    Copyright type Creative commons
    DOI 10.1016/j.isci.2022.105491
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    Created: Wed, 04 Jan 2023, 21:42:56 JST by Aarti Basnyat on behalf of UNU EHS