Advancing the evidence base of future warming impacts on human mobility in African drylands

Thalheimer, Lisa, Williams, David, van der Geest, Kees and Friederike, Otto E.L., (2021). Advancing the evidence base of future warming impacts on human mobility in African drylands. Earth’s Future, 9(10), 1-10

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  • Sub-type Journal article
    Author Thalheimer, Lisa
    Williams, David
    van der Geest, Kees
    Friederike, Otto E.L.
    Title Advancing the evidence base of future warming impacts on human mobility in African drylands
    Appearing in Earth’s Future
    Volume 9
    Issue No. 10
    Publication Date 2021
    Place of Publication Hoboken
    Publisher Wiley
    Start page 1
    End page 10
    Language eng
    Abstract The Paris Agreement recognises that climate change and extreme weather events alter human mobility patterns. Even under an optimistic scenario, an increase in global temperature of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels is likely to increase the numbers of people vulnerable to climatic stress while limiting the capacity for effective climate change adaptation. Under a less optimistic scenario the disruption is expected to be worse. Yet, the impacts of different warming scenarios, including observed warming, on human mobility remain insufficiently understood and discussed in policymaking. A synthesis of empirical evidence from the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C and subsequently published literature on climate change effects in African drylands highlight implications of warming scenarios on human mobility in this region, where climatic change is a defining feature of local communities and predominantly agricultural economies. Adverse effects of climate change on African dryland communities may not necessarily cause mass migration but are likely to alter human mobility from more voluntary towards more forced displacement or entrapment. A systems approach can be used as a starting point to address the urgent challenges of climate-related human mobility.
    Keyword Impacts of climate change
    Migration
    Displacement
    Livelihood
    Scenarios
    IPCC
    Complex systems
    Copyright Holder American Geophysical Union
    Copyright Year 2021
    Copyright type All rights reserved
    DOI 10.1029/2020EF001958
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    Created: Thu, 30 Sep 2021, 22:23:32 JST by Aarti Basnyat on behalf of UNU EHS