Burning embers: towards more transparent and robust climate-change risk assessments
Zommers, Zinta, Marbaix, Philippe, Fischlin, Andreas, Ibrahim, Zelina Z., Grant, Sean, Magnan, Alexandre K., Pörtner, Hans-Otto, Howden, Mark, Calvin, Katherine, Warner, Koko, Thiery, Wim, Sebesvari, Zita, Davin, Edouard L., Evans, Jason P., Rosenzweig, Cynthia, O’Neill, Brian C., Patwardhan, Anand, Warren, Rachel, van Aalst, Maarten K. and Hulbert, Margot, (2020). Burning embers: towards more transparent and robust climate-change risk assessments. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1 516-529
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Sub-type Journal article Author Zommers, Zinta
Marbaix, Philippe
Fischlin, Andreas
Ibrahim, Zelina Z.
Grant, Sean
Magnan, Alexandre K.
Pörtner, Hans-Otto
Howden, Mark
Calvin, Katherine
Warner, Koko
Thiery, Wim
Sebesvari, Zita
Davin, Edouard L.
Evans, Jason P.
Rosenzweig, Cynthia
O’Neill, Brian C.
Patwardhan, Anand
Warren, Rachel
van Aalst, Maarten K.
Hulbert, MargotTitle Burning embers: towards more transparent and robust climate-change risk assessments Appearing in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Volume 1 Publication Date 2020-10-09 Place of Publication London Publisher Springer Nature Start page 516 End page 529 Language eng Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports provide policy-relevant insights about climate impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation through a process of peer-reviewed literature assessments underpinned by expert judgement. An iconic output from these assessments is the burning embers diagram, first used in the Third Assessment Report to visualize reasons for concern, which aggregate climate-change-related impacts and risks to various systems and sectors. These burning embers use colour transitions to show changes in the assessed level of risk to humans and ecosystems as a function of global mean temperature. In this Review, we outline the history and evolution of the burning embers and associated reasons for concern framework, focusing on the methodological approaches and advances. While the assessment framework and figure design have been broadly retained over time, refinements in methodology have occurred, including the consideration of different risks, use of confidence statements, more formalized protocols and standardized metrics. Comparison across reports reveals that the risk level at a given temperature has generally increased with each assessment cycle, reflecting accumulating scientific evidence. For future assessments, an explicit, transparent and systematic process of expert elicitation is needed to enhance comparability, quality and credibility of burning embers. Copyright Holder Springer Nature Limited Copyright Year 2020 Copyright type All rights reserved DOI 10.1038/s43017-020-0088-0 -
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