Co-design of national-scale future scenarios in Japan to predict and assess natural capital and ecosystem services
Saito, Osamu, Kamiyama, Chiho, Hashimoto, Shizuka, Matsui, Takanori, Shoyama, Kikuko, Kabaya, Kei, Uetake, Tomoko, Taki, Hisatomo, Ishikawa, Yoichi, Matsushita, Kohei, Yamane, Fumihiro, Hori, Juri, Ariga, Toshinori and Takeuchi, Kazuhiko, (2018). Co-design of national-scale future scenarios in Japan to predict and assess natural capital and ecosystem services. Sustainability Science, 13 1-17
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Sub-type Journal article Author Saito, Osamu
Kamiyama, Chiho
Hashimoto, Shizuka
Matsui, Takanori
Shoyama, Kikuko
Kabaya, Kei
Uetake, Tomoko
Taki, Hisatomo
Ishikawa, Yoichi
Matsushita, Kohei
Yamane, Fumihiro
Hori, Juri
Ariga, Toshinori
Takeuchi, KazuhikoTitle Co-design of national-scale future scenarios in Japan to predict and assess natural capital and ecosystem services Appearing in Sustainability Science Volume 13 Publication Date 2018-06-18 Place of Publication Online Publisher Springer Japan Start page 1 End page 17 Language eng Abstract Although the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services has revealed that the development of scenarios is crucial for helping decision makers identify the potential impact of different policy options, there is a lack of reported scenario approach studies in Asia. A new 5-year research project (PANCES) has been developed for predicting and assessing the natural capital and ecosystem services in Japan using an integrated social–ecological system approach via the participation of 15 research institutions and more than 100 researchers. PANCES conducts the development of national-scale future scenarios for exploring potential changes in natural capital and ecosystem services, as well as human well-being, up to 2050 using key direct and indirect drivers including climate change, depopulation, and super-aging, as well as globalization and technological innovation. The Delphi method is employed to generate key drivers that determine different future pathways. Based on the two drivers for scenario axes identified by the Delphi survey and extensive discussion with project members and policy makers, four future scenarios are created, “Natural capital-based compact society”, “Natural capital-based dispersed society”, “Produced capital-based compact society”, and “Produced capital-based dispersed society”, respectively, in addition to the business-as-usual scenario. This study describes a novel approach for collectively designing national-scale future scenarios with qualitative storylines and a visual illustration of the developed scenarios in Japan. Keyword Scenarios
Social-ecological systems
Natural capital
Ecosystem services
Human well-beingCopyright Holder Springer Japan KK Copyright Year 2018 Copyright type All rights reserved DOI 10.1007/s11625-018-0587-9 -
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