The economic impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa
Azomahou, Théophile T., Boucekkine, Raouf and Diene, Bity (2008). The economic impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa. UNU-MERIT.
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Sub-type Working paper Author Azomahou, Théophile T.
Boucekkine, Raouf
Diene, BityTitle The economic impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa Publication Date 2008 Place of Publication Maastricht, NL Publisher UNU-MERIT Pages 36 Abstract In this paper, a simple general equilibrium model à la Solow is developed to capture the impact of AIDS on economic growth. To this end, a benchmark model due to Cuddington and Hancock (1994) is extended in various directions. In particular, the sharply declining life expectancy patterns are clearly re°ected in the enlarged model through a generic Ben-Porath mechanism. AIDS-related health expenditures are incorporated as well. Using up-do-date optimal forecasting methods, the model applied to South Africa shows that while a relatively short term assessment might not reveal any dramatic AIDS growth e®ect, the medium/long run impact can be truly devastating. In particular, the heavy trends in mortality and life expectancy currently induced by AIDS are shown to be potentially at least twice more detrimen-tal for per capita economic growth in the period 2020-2030 compared to 2000-2010. Keyword Epidemics
Life expectancy
Economic growth
AIDSJEL C61
C62
O41Copyright Holder UNU-MERIT Copyright Year 2008 Copyright type All rights reserved ISSN 18719872 -
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