Factorization of air pollutant emissions: projections versus observed trends in Europe

Rafaj, Peter, Amann, Markus and Siri, José G., (2014). Factorization of air pollutant emissions: projections versus observed trends in Europe. Science of the Total Environment, 494–495 494-495

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  • Sub-type Journal article
    Author Rafaj, Peter
    Amann, Markus
    Siri, José G.
    Title Factorization of air pollutant emissions: projections versus observed trends in Europe
    Appearing in Science of the Total Environment
    Volume 494–495
    Publication Date 2014-07-01
    Place of Publication New York
    Publisher Elsevier B.V
    Start page 494
    End page 495
    Language eng
    Abstract

    This paper revisits the emission scenarios of the European Commission's 2005 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution
    (TSAP) in light of today's knowledge. We review assumptions made in the past on the main drivers of emission
    changes, i.e., demographic trends, economic growth, changes in the energy intensity of GDP, fuel-switching, and
    application of dedicatedemission controlmeasures. Our analysis shows that formost of these drivers, actual trends
    have not matched initial expectations. Observed ammonia and sulfur emissions in European Union in 2010 were
    10% to 20% lower than projected,while emissions of nitrogen oxides and particulatematter exceeded estimates by
    8% to 15%. In general, a higher efficiency of dedicated emission controls compensated for a lower-than-expected
    decline in total energy consumption as well as a delay in the phase-out of coal. For 2020, updated projections anticipate
    lower sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions than those under the 2005 baseline, whereby the degree to
    which these emissions are lower depends on what assumptions are made for emission controls and new vehicle
    standards. Projected levels of particulates are about 10% higher, while smaller differences emerge for other pollutants.
    New emission projections suggest that environmental targets established by the TSAP for the protection of
    human health, eutrophication and forest acidification will not be met without additional measures.

    Keyword Air pollution
    Driving factors
    Reduction targets
    Emission regulations
    Copyright Holder Elsevier BV
    Copyright Year 2014
    Copyright type All rights reserved
    DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.07.013
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    Created: Tue, 29 Sep 2015, 12:33:47 JST