Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Stategies for Rainfed Barley Production in the Almería Province, Spain
Saretto, Francesco, Roy, Bishwajit, Encarnacao Coelho, Ricardo, Reder, Alfredo, Fedele, Giusy, Oakes, Robert, Brandimarte, Luigia and Capela Lourenco, Tiago, (2024). Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Stategies for Rainfed Barley Production in the Almería Province, Spain. Atmosphere, 15(5), 606-n/a
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Sub-type Journal article Author Saretto, Francesco
Roy, Bishwajit
Encarnacao Coelho, Ricardo
Reder, Alfredo
Fedele, Giusy
Oakes, Robert
Brandimarte, Luigia
Capela Lourenco, TiagoTitle Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Stategies for Rainfed Barley Production in the Almería Province, Spain Appearing in Atmosphere Volume 15 Issue No. 5 Publication Date 2024-05-16 Place of Publication Basel Publisher Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Start page 606 End page n/a Language eng Abstract Mediterranean water-stressed areas face significant challenges from higher temperatures and increasingly severe droughts. We assess the effect of climate change on rainfed barley production in the aridity-prone province of Almería, Spain, using the FAO AquaCrop model. We focus on rainfed barley growth by the mid-century (2041–2070) and end-century (2071–2100) time periods, using three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP)-based scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Using the paired t-test, Spearman and Pearson correlation coefficient, Root Mean Squared Error, and relative Root Mean Squared Error, we verified AquaCrop’s ability to capture local multi-year trends (9 or more years) using standard barley crop parameters, without local recalibration. Starting with a reference Initial Soil Water Content (ISWC), different soil water contents within barley rooting depth were modelled to account for decreases in soil water availability. We then evaluated the efficiency of different climate adaptation strategies: irrigation, mulching, and changing sowing dates. We show average yield changes of +14% to −44.8% (mid-century) and +12% to −55.1% (end-century), with ISWC being the main factor determining yields. Irrigation increases yields by 21.1%, utilizing just 3% of Almería’s superficial water resources. Mulches improve irrigated yield performances by 6.9% while reducing irrigation needs by 40%. Changing sowing dates does not consistently improve yields. We demonstrate that regardless of the scenario used, climate adaptation of field barley production in Almería should prioritize limiting soil water loss by combining irrigation with mulching. This would enable farmers in Almería’s northern communities to maintain their livelihoods, reducing the province’s reliance on horticulture while continuing to contribute to food security goals. UNBIS Thesaurus IRRIGATION
BARLEYKeyword Climate change adaptation
Mediterranean
Almería
Mulches
Soil water content
AquaCrop modelCopyright Holder The Authors Copyright Year 2024 Copyright type Creative commons DOI 10.3390/atmos15050606 -
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