Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas
Magnan, Alexandre K., Oppenheimer, Michael, Garschagen, Matthias, Buchanan, Maya K., Duvat, Virginie K.E., Forbes, Donald L., Ford, James D., Lambert, Erwin, Petzold, Jan, Renaud, Fabrice G., Sebesvari, Zita, van de Wal, Roderik S.W., Hinkel, Jochen and Poertner, Hans-Otto, (2022). Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas. Nature Scientific Reports, 12 1-22
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Sub-type Journal article Author Magnan, Alexandre K.
Oppenheimer, Michael
Garschagen, Matthias
Buchanan, Maya K.
Duvat, Virginie K.E.
Forbes, Donald L.
Ford, James D.
Lambert, Erwin
Petzold, Jan
Renaud, Fabrice G.
Sebesvari, Zita
van de Wal, Roderik S.W.
Hinkel, Jochen
Poertner, Hans-OttoTitle Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas Appearing in Nature Scientific Reports Volume 12 Publication Date 2022-06-23 Place of Publication London Publisher Nature Portfolio Start page 1 End page 22 Language eng Abstract Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming and two adaptation scenarios, for four coastal settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that adaptation will be substantially beneficial to the continued habitability of most low-lying settlements over this century, at least until the RCP8.5 median SLR level is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide will experience adaptation limits over the course of this century, indicating situations where even ambitious adaptation cannot sufficiently offset a failure to effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions. Copyright Holder The Authors Copyright Year 2022 Copyright type Creative commons DOI 10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w -
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