Adapting to Climate Change: An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique

Arndt, Channing, Strzepek, Kenneth, Tarp, Finn, Thurlow, James, Fant, Charles and Len Wright (2010). Adapting to Climate Change: An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique. UNU-WIDER.

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  • Sub-type Working paper
    Author Arndt, Channing
    Strzepek, Kenneth
    Tarp, Finn
    Thurlow, James
    Fant, Charles
    Len Wright
    Title Adapting to Climate Change: An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique
    Publication Date 2010-09
    Place of Publication Helsinki
    Publisher UNU-WIDER
    Pages 20
    Language eng
    Abstract Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modelling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US$2.3 to US$7.4 billion during 2003– 50. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ‘no-regret’ adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies.
    UNBIS Thesaurus ECOSYSTEMS
    MOZAMBIQUE
    CLIMATE CHANGE
    Copyright Holder United Nations University
    Copyright Year 2010
    Copyright type All rights reserved
    ISSN 1798723
    ISBN 9789292303
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    Created: Thu, 21 Oct 2021, 15:38:56 JST