Climate change impact assessment on the hydrology of a large river basin in Ethiopia using a local-scale climate modelling approach

Gebrechorkos, Solomon H., Bernhofer, Christian and Hülsmann, Stephan, (2020). Climate change impact assessment on the hydrology of a large river basin in Ethiopia using a local-scale climate modelling approach. Science of the Total Environment, 742 1-13

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  • Sub-type Journal article
    Author Gebrechorkos, Solomon H.
    Bernhofer, Christian
    Hülsmann, Stephan
    Title Climate change impact assessment on the hydrology of a large river basin in Ethiopia using a local-scale climate modelling approach
    Appearing in Science of the Total Environment   Check publisher's open access policy
    Volume 742
    Publication Date 2020-11-10
    Place of Publication Amsterdam, Netherlands
    Publisher Elsevier B.V.
    Start page 1
    End page 13
    Language eng
    Abstract Local-scale climate change adaptation is receiving more attention to reduce the adverse effects of climate change. The process of developing adaptation measures at local-scale (e.g., river basins) requires high-quality climate information with higher resolution. Climate projections are available at a coarser spatial resolution from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and require spatial downscaling and bias correction to drive hydrological models. We used the hybrid multiple linear regression and stochastic weather generator model (Statistical Down-Scaling Model, SDSM) to develop a location-based climate projection, equivalent to future station data, from GCMs. Meteorological data from 24 ground stations and the most accurate satellite and reanalysis products identified for the region, such as Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data were used. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impacts of the projected climate on hydrology. Both SDSM and SWAT were calibrated and validated using the observed climate and streamflow data, respectively. Climate projection based on SDSM, in one of the large and agricultural intensive basins in Ethiopia (i.e., Awash), show high variability in precipitation but an increase in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature, which agrees with global warming. On average, the projection shows an increase in annual precipitation (>10%), Tmax (>0.4 °C), Tmin (>0.2 °C) and streamflow (>34%) in the 2020s (2011–2040), 2050s (2041–2070), and 2080s (2071–2100) under RCP2.6-RCP8.5. Although no significant trend in precipitation is found, streamflow during March–May and June–September is projected to increase throughout the 21 century by an average of more than 1.1% and 24%, respectively. However, streamflow is projected to decrease during January–February and October–November by more than 6%. Overall, considering the projected warming and changes in seasonal flow, local-scale adaptation measures to limit the impact on agriculture, water and energy sectors are required.
    UNBIS Thesaurus CLIMATE CHANGE
    Keyword Climate projection
    SDSM
    Hydro-climate modelling
    Impact assessment
    Awash Basin
    Copyright Holder Elsevier B.V.
    Copyright Year 2020
    Copyright type All rights reserved
    ISSN 0048-9697
    DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140504
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    Created: Mon, 28 Sep 2020, 23:39:32 JST by Eric Siegmund on behalf of UNU FLORES