Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania

Gebrechorkos, Solomon H., Hülsmann, Stephan and Bernhofer, Christian, (2018). Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania. International Journal of Climatology, 39(1), 18-30

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  • Sub-type Journal article
    Author Gebrechorkos, Solomon H.
    Hülsmann, Stephan
    Bernhofer, Christian
    Title Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania
    Appearing in International Journal of Climatology
    Volume 39
    Issue No. 1
    Publication Date 2018-08-14
    Place of Publication Reading
    Publisher Royal Meteorological Society
    Start page 18
    End page 30
    Language eng
    Abstract East Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions of Africa to extreme weather and climate events. Regional and local information on climate extremes is critical for monitoring and managing the impacts and developing sustainable adaptation measures. However, this type of information is not readily available at the necessary spatial resolution. Therefore, here we test trends and variability of temperature (1979–2010) and precipitation (1981–2016) extremes in East Africa, particularly Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania, at a spatial resolution of 0.1 and 0.05°, respectively, using the indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). We use gridded data sets with high accuracy and resolution from the Terrestrial Hydrology Research Group, University of Princeton and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS). Trends of 19 indices are computed by fitting a linear model and using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and the magnitude of change is computed using the Sen's slope method. The results show an increasing trend in monthly maximum and minimum values of daily maximum and minimum temperature in large parts of the region. This is accompanied by significant increasing trends in warm nights (TN90p), warm days (TX90p), warm spell duration index (WSDI), and summer days index (SU). In addition, cold days (TX10p) and cold nights (TN10p) showed a significant decreasing trend. In general, the results show an increasing tendency in temperatures extremes, which is in line with rising global mean temperature. In addition, most of the temperature extremes observed after 2000 are warmer than the long‐term mean (1979–2010). Precipitation indices, on the other hand, showed increasing and decreasing trends in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania, but no general pattern. The outcomes enable identifying hot spot areas and planning of adaptation and mitigation measures at much finer spatial scale than previously possible.
    UNBIS Thesaurus CLIMATE
    EAST AFRICA
    PRECIPITATION
    TEMPERATURE
    Keyword ETCCDI
    Extremes
    Trend
    Copyright Holder Royal Meteorological Society
    Copyright Year 2018
    Copyright type All rights reserved
    DOI 10.1002/joc.5777
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    Created: Mon, 20 Aug 2018, 19:39:54 JST by Claudia Matthias on behalf of UNU FLORES