Co-design of national-scale future scenarios in Japan to predict and assess natural capital and ecosystem services

Saito, Osamu, Kamiyama, Chiho, Hashimoto, Shizuka, Matsui, Takanori, Shoyama, Kikuko, Kabaya, Kei, Uetake, Tomoko, Taki, Hisatomo, Ishikawa, Yoichi, Matsushita, Kohei, Yamane, Fumihiro, Hori, Juri, Ariga, Toshinori and Takeuchi, Kazuhiko, (2018). Co-design of national-scale future scenarios in Japan to predict and assess natural capital and ecosystem services. Sustainability Science, 13 1-17

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  • Sub-type Journal article
    Author Saito, Osamu
    Kamiyama, Chiho
    Hashimoto, Shizuka
    Matsui, Takanori
    Shoyama, Kikuko
    Kabaya, Kei
    Uetake, Tomoko
    Taki, Hisatomo
    Ishikawa, Yoichi
    Matsushita, Kohei
    Yamane, Fumihiro
    Hori, Juri
    Ariga, Toshinori
    Takeuchi, Kazuhiko
    Title Co-design of national-scale future scenarios in Japan to predict and assess natural capital and ecosystem services
    Appearing in Sustainability Science
    Volume 13
    Publication Date 2018-06-18
    Place of Publication Online
    Publisher Springer Japan
    Start page 1
    End page 17
    Language eng
    Abstract Although the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services has revealed that the development of scenarios is crucial for helping decision makers identify the potential impact of different policy options, there is a lack of reported scenario approach studies in Asia. A new 5-year research project (PANCES) has been developed for predicting and assessing the natural capital and ecosystem services in Japan using an integrated social–ecological system approach via the participation of 15 research institutions and more than 100 researchers. PANCES conducts the development of national-scale future scenarios for exploring potential changes in natural capital and ecosystem services, as well as human well-being, up to 2050 using key direct and indirect drivers including climate change, depopulation, and super-aging, as well as globalization and technological innovation. The Delphi method is employed to generate key drivers that determine different future pathways. Based on the two drivers for scenario axes identified by the Delphi survey and extensive discussion with project members and policy makers, four future scenarios are created, “Natural capital-based compact society”, “Natural capital-based dispersed society”, “Produced capital-based compact society”, and “Produced capital-based dispersed society”, respectively, in addition to the business-as-usual scenario. This study describes a novel approach for collectively designing national-scale future scenarios with qualitative storylines and a visual illustration of the developed scenarios in Japan.
    Keyword Scenarios
    Social-ecological systems
    Natural capital
    Ecosystem services
    Human well-being
    Copyright Holder Springer Japan KK
    Copyright Year 2018
    Copyright type All rights reserved
    DOI 10.1007/s11625-018-0587-9
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    Created: Thu, 21 Jun 2018, 17:12:55 JST by PEGUES, Susan Scott on behalf of UNU IAS