Future land use management effects on ecosystem services under different scenarios in the Wabe River catchment of Gurage Mountain chain landscape, Ethiopia

Sahle, Mesfin, Saito, Osamu, Furst, Christine, Demissew, Sebsebe and Yeshitela, Kumelachew, (2018). Future land use management effects on ecosystem services under different scenarios in the Wabe River catchment of Gurage Mountain chain landscape, Ethiopia. Sustainability Science, 1-16

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  • Sub-type Journal article
    Author Sahle, Mesfin
    Saito, Osamu
    Furst, Christine
    Demissew, Sebsebe
    Yeshitela, Kumelachew
    Title Future land use management effects on ecosystem services under different scenarios in the Wabe River catchment of Gurage Mountain chain landscape, Ethiopia
    Appearing in Sustainability Science
    Publication Date 2018-06-01
    Place of Publication Online
    Publisher Springer Nature
    Start page 1
    End page 16
    Language eng
    Abstract In this study, we have modeled and examined future land use management effects on ecosystem services in the Wabe River catchment of the Gurage Mountain chain landscape, Ethiopia. In addition to the climate-resilient scenario designed to meet the strategic plan of Ethiopia, the business as usual (BAU) and an alternative agroforestry scenario were modeled for the year 2030 to align with the government long-term development plan. Through the statistical and biophysical modeling approach, this study quantified and mapped the food production, water provision, carbon storage, and sequestration and sediment retention ecosystem services. The land use land cover and the other datasets were obtained from various primary and secondary sources, and prepared according to the models requirement. The future scenarios were modeled through the Land Change Modeler for ArcGIS and InVEST Scenario Generator models. The simulated BAU scenario result revealed that all of the ecosystem services decreased from the baseline status. In contrast, implementation of the climate-resilient strategy could enhance the existing status of ecosystem services. In the agroforestry scenario, all of the quantified ecosystem services increased even more than the climate-resilient scenario. We conclude that landscape management activities described in the climate-resilient strategy could ensure sustainable production while conserving the environment. However, we recommend the enset-based agroforestry system expansion, which could boost food production and enhance other ecological services in the catchment. Further studies are suggested on the expansion of this system in the catchment and similar parts of Ethiopia.
    Keyword Enset-based agroforestry
    Business as usual
    InVEST
    Synergies
    Land use models
    Landscape planning
    Copyright Holder Springer Japan KK
    Copyright Year 2018
    Copyright type All rights reserved
    DOI 10.1007/s11625-018-0585-y
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    Created: Mon, 04 Jun 2018, 16:57:26 JST by PEGUES, Susan Scott on behalf of UNU IAS