Current Assessment and Future Outlook for Water Resources Considering Climate Change and a Population Burst: A Case Study of Ciliwung River, Jakarta City, Indonesia

Kumar, Pankaj, Masago, Yoshifumi, Mishra, Binaya K., Jalilov, Shokhrukh-Mirzo, Emam, Ammar Rafiei, Kefi, Mohamed and Fukushi, Kensuke, (2017). Current Assessment and Future Outlook for Water Resources Considering Climate Change and a Population Burst: A Case Study of Ciliwung River, Jakarta City, Indonesia. Water, 9(6), 1-15

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    Author Kumar, Pankaj
    Masago, Yoshifumi
    Mishra, Binaya K.
    Jalilov, Shokhrukh-Mirzo
    Emam, Ammar Rafiei
    Kefi, Mohamed
    Fukushi, Kensuke
    Title Current Assessment and Future Outlook for Water Resources Considering Climate Change and a Population Burst: A Case Study of Ciliwung River, Jakarta City, Indonesia
    Appearing in Water
    Volume 9
    Issue No. 6
    Publication Date 2017-06-08
    Place of Publication Basel
    Publisher MDPI AG
    Start page 1
    End page 15
    Language eng
    Abstract Modeling insecurity under future climate change and socio-economic development is indispensable for adaptive planning and sustainable management of water resources. This case study strives to assess the water quality and quantity status for both the present and the near future in the Ciliwung River basin inside the Jakarta Province under different scenarios using population growth with planned additional wastewater management infrastructure by 2030 as mentioned in the local master plan, and comparing the above conditions with the addition of the effects of climate change. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD) and nitrate (NO3), the three important indicators of aquatic ecosystem health, were simulated to assess river pollution. Simulation results suggest that water quality in year 2030 will further deteriorate compared to the base year 2000 due to population growth and climate change, even considering the planned wastewater management infrastructure. The magnitude of impact from population growth is far greater than that from climate change. Simulated values of NO3, BOD and COD ranged from 6.07 to 13.34 mg/L, 7.65 to 11.41 mg/L, and 20.16 to 51.01 mg/L, respectively. Almost all of the water quality parameters exceeded the safe limit suitable for a healthy aquatic system, especially for the year 2030. The situation of water quality is worse for the downstream sampling location because of the cumulative effect of transport of untreated pollutants coming from upstream as well as local dumping. This result will be useful for local policy makers and stakeholders involved in the water sector to formulate strategic and adaptive policies and plan for the future. One of the potential policy interventions is to implement a national integrated sewerage and septage management program on a priority basis, considering various factors like population density and growth, and global changes for both short- and long-term measures.
    Keyword Biochemical oxygen demand
    Chemical oxygen demand
    River pollution
    Wastewater management
    Water quality modeling
    Water Evaluation and Planning
    Copyright Holder The Authors
    Copyright Year 2017
    Copyright type Creative commons
    DOI 10.3390/w9060410
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    Created: Mon, 12 Jun 2017, 14:40:08 JST by PEGUES, Susan Scott on behalf of UNU IAS