Sustainability Transitions: Exploring Risk Management and the Future of Adaptation in the Megacity of Lagos

Ajibade, Idowu, Pelling, Mark, Agboola, Julius Ibukun and Garschagen, Matthias, (2017). Sustainability Transitions: Exploring Risk Management and the Future of Adaptation in the Megacity of Lagos. Journal of Extreme Events, 03(03), 1-25

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  • Sub-type Journal article
    Author Ajibade, Idowu
    Pelling, Mark
    Agboola, Julius Ibukun
    Garschagen, Matthias
    Title Sustainability Transitions: Exploring Risk Management and the Future of Adaptation in the Megacity of Lagos
    Appearing in Journal of Extreme Events
    Volume 03
    Issue No. 03
    Publication Date 2017-03-21
    Place of Publication Singapore
    Publisher World Scientific Publishing Company
    Start page 1
    End page 25
    Language eng
    Abstract Lagos, a coastal megacity with more than 11 million inhabitants faces serious development challenges in addition to climatic risks and extreme weather events. There are uncertainties about future disaster risk trends and about how to manage and adapt to existing threats in ways that ensure a just and sustainable development trajectory. In this paper, we explore the changes that have occurred in risk management in Lagos over the last 20 years, as part of a broader endeavor towards sustainability. We draw on transition theory to analyze data collected from a scenario workshop and expert interviews conducted over a period of two years, to understand the influences, processes and actors that shape the adaptation-development nexus in Lagos. Findings based on stakeholders voices present a risk management regime firmly oriented towards protecting contemporary development gains and policies, despite Nigeria’s contested development strategy. Future positioning of risk management is described as either maintaining its current goals or shifting towards a position where development is seen as a root cause of risk and a focus for change. Resilience (marginal changes in development to maintain stability) is not foreseen as a likely future choice for Lagos. This is in contrast to many global agendas that promote resilience and reflects the realities of managing risks in the context of contested development.
    Keyword Climate change adaptation
    Development
    Lagos
    Sea level rise
    Sustainability
    Transformation
    Resilience
    Copyright Holder The Authors
    Copyright Year 2017
    Copyright type Fair use permitted
    ISSN 23457376
    DOI 10.1142/S2345737616500093
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    Created: Wed, 31 May 2017, 21:19:52 JST by Aarti Basnyat on behalf of UNU EHS