Impact Assessment of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Flooding Behavior in the Upper Ciliwung River, Jakarta, Indonesia

Emam, Ammar R., Mishra, Binaya K., Kumar, Pankaj, Masago, Yoshifumi and Fukushi, Kensuke, (2016). Impact Assessment of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Flooding Behavior in the Upper Ciliwung River, Jakarta, Indonesia. Water, 8(12), 1-10

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  • Sub-type Journal article
    Author Emam, Ammar R.
    Mishra, Binaya K.
    Kumar, Pankaj
    Masago, Yoshifumi
    Fukushi, Kensuke
    Title Impact Assessment of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Flooding Behavior in the Upper Ciliwung River, Jakarta, Indonesia
    Appearing in Water
    Volume 8
    Issue No. 12
    Publication Date 2016-11-29
    Place of Publication Basel
    Publisher MDPI AG
    Start page 1
    End page 10
    Language eng
    Abstract The hydrological conditions upstream of the Ciliwung watershed are changing due to climate and land-use changes. Any changes in this area may increase the flood frequencies which may have countless consequences downstream of the watershed where the Jakarta city is located. We simulated the effects of land-use and climate changes on flooding (e.g., peak flow and river discharge) in the upper Ciliwung River basin in Greater Jakarta, Indonesia. Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS), a rainfall-runoff simulation model, was used to simulate peak river discharge values for current and future conditions. The model was calibrated and validated based on the observed river discharge data from February 2007 and January 1996, respectively. The statistical analysis showed that the performance of the model is satisfactory, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency 0.64 and 0.58 for calibration and validation, respectively. The coefficients of determination values are 0.86 and 0.82, respectively. The effect of the projected land-use changes alone in 2030 increased the peak flow by approximately 20%. When considering the land-use changes in conjunction with the future climate scenario, the peak flow based on the precipitation corresponding to a 50-year return period in 2030 increased by 130%. Based on the results of this study, it is urgent that a flood management plan be implemented in the target area to reduce flooding in the near future.
    UNBIS Thesaurus CLIMATE CHANGE
    FLOODS
    LAND USE
    Keyword HEC-HMS model
    Peak flow
    Copyright Holder Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
    Copyright Year 2016
    Copyright type All rights reserved
    DOI 10.3390/w8120559
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