Possible Climate Change/Variability and Human Impacts, Vulnerability of Drought-Prone Regions, Water Resources and Capacity Building for Africa

Gan, Thian Yew, Ito, Mari, Hülsmann, Stephan, Qin, Xiaosheng, Lu, Xi Xi, Liong, Shie-Yui, Rutschman, Peter, Disse, Markus and Koivusalo, Harri, (2016). Possible Climate Change/Variability and Human Impacts, Vulnerability of Drought-Prone Regions, Water Resources and Capacity Building for Africa. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61(7), 1209-1226

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  • Sub-type Journal article
    Author Gan, Thian Yew
    Ito, Mari
    Hülsmann, Stephan
    Qin, Xiaosheng
    Lu, Xi Xi
    Liong, Shie-Yui
    Rutschman, Peter
    Disse, Markus
    Koivusalo, Harri
    Title Possible Climate Change/Variability and Human Impacts, Vulnerability of Drought-Prone Regions, Water Resources and Capacity Building for Africa
    Appearing in Hydrological Sciences Journal
    Volume 61
    Issue No. 7
    Publication Date 2016-03-22
    Place of Publication Online
    Publisher Taylor & Francis Group
    Start page 1209
    End page 1226
    Language eng
    Abstract This review article discusses the climate, water resources and historical droughts of Africa, drought indices, vulnerability, impact of global warming and land use for drought-prone regions in West, southern and the Greater Horn of Africa, which have suffered recurrent severe droughts in the past. Recent studies detected warming and drying trends in Africa since the mid 20th century. Based on the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), both northern and southern Africa are projected to experience drying, such as decreasing precipitation, runoff and soil moisture in the 21st century and could become more vulnerable to the impact of droughts. The daily maximum temperature is projected to increase by up to 8°C (RCP8.5 of CMIP5), precipitation indices such as total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation days (R10 mm) could decrease, while warm spell duration (WSDI) and consecutive dry days (CDD) could increase. Uncertainties of the above long-term projections, teleconnections to climate anomalies such as ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which could also affect the water resources of Africa, and capacity building in terms of physical infrastructure and non-structural solutions are also discussed. Given that traditional climate and hydrological data observed in Africa are generally limited, satellite data should also be exploited to fill the data gap for Africa in the future.
    Keyword Droughts
    Water resources of Africa
    Vulnerability
    Climate change impacts
    Land-use changes
    Climate anomalies
    Uncertainties
    Capacity building
    Copyright Holder Taylor & Francis Group
    Copyright Year 2016
    Copyright type All rights reserved
    DOI 10.1080/02626667.2015.1057143
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    Created: Tue, 13 Sep 2016, 19:21:42 JST by Claudia Matthias on behalf of UNU FLORES