Once burned, twice shy? Lessons learned from the 1997-98 El Niño

The adage "once burned, twice shy" suggests that when someone has had a bad experience, he or she is likely to shy away from being in the same situation again, having better learned to deal with it. By analogy, do societies that are forced to cope with recurring natural hazards learn from history?

This assessment reviews forecasts and societal impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño. Underlying this review is a look at the climate-related early warning and natural disaster preparedness systems in a number of countries with the objective of improving their El Niño- and other climate-related coping mechanisms. The following locations are targeted in this study: Bangladesh, China, Costa Rica, Cuba, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Fiji, Indonesia, Kenya, Mozambique, Panama Canal, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, and Vietnam. Based on the lessons drawn from these studies, key research and policy needs are identified in this book. Importantly, several ideas are presented for developing regional and national natural disaster preparedness plans for coping with the impacts El Niño Southern Oscillation's warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) events.