Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk
Sub-type Journal article Author Birkmann, Joern
Cutter, Susan L.
van Ruijven, Bas J.
Setiadi, Neysa J.
Binder, Claudia R.
Pulwarty, Roger S.
Title Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk Appearing in Climate Change Publication Date 2013-11-09 Place of Publication Dordrecht Publisher Springer Start page 1 End page 16 Language eng Abstract
Most scientific assessments for climate change adaptation and risk reduction are based on scenarios for climatic change. Scenarios for socio-economic development, particularly in terms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are largely lacking. This paper focuses on the utility of socio-economic scenarios for vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. The paper introduces the goals and functions of scenarios in general and reflects on the current global debate around shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). It examines the options and constraints of scenario methods for risk and vulnerability assessments in the context of climate change and natural hazards. Two case studies are used to contrast the opportunities and current constraints in scenario methods at different scales: the global WorldRiskIndex, based on quantitative data and indicators; and a local participatory scenario development process in Jakarta, showing a qualitative approach. The juxtaposition of a quantitative approach with global data and a qualitative-participatory local approach provides new insights on how different methods and scenario techniques can be applied in vulnerability and risk research.
Copyright Holder Springer Copyright Year 2013 Copyright type All rights reserved ISSN 1650009
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