Interconnected Disaster Risks: Turning Over a New Leaf

Eberle, Caitlyn, Narvaez, Liliana, Mena Benavides, Melisa, Karakislak, Irmak and Sebesvari, Zita (2025). Interconnected Disaster Risks: Turning Over a New Leaf. Interconnected Disaster Risks 2025. United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security.

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    Author Eberle, Caitlyn
    Narvaez, Liliana
    Mena Benavides, Melisa
    Karakislak, Irmak
    Sebesvari, Zita
    Title Interconnected Disaster Risks: Turning Over a New Leaf
    Series Title Interconnected Disaster Risks 2025
    Publication Date 2025-04-09
    Place of Publication Bonn
    Publisher United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security
    Pages 96
    Language eng
    Abstract Climate change is intensifying, yet fossil fuel use and emissions are still reaching new heights. Species are going extinct at unprecedented rates, yet we continue to destroy ecosystems. More than two billion tonnes of household waste are produced each year and cause harm globally, yet the amount is projected to double by 2050. Scientists have also told us what needs to change: Stop using fossil fuels. Protect and restore ecosystems. Live sustainably. Nevertheless, we are making fairly little progress towards such goals. This begs the question, if we know what we need to do, why aren’t we doing it? The 2025 Interconnected Disaster Risks report outlines five key changes to we can make to reduce these risks and achieve a more desirable future: realigning with nature, rethinking waste and resource use, reconsidering our responsibilities towards other people and communities, reimagining the future and their opportunities and redefining value. The report presents a conceptual framework called the Theory of Deep Change to analyze what the world could look like if we make these changes, and what is preventing us from doing so. Applying the theory involves the observation of existing outcomes, the identification of underlying root causes, a vision of a more desirable future and the exploration of changes that could transform the system. The Theory of Deep Change also helps identify which changes are most effective, namely those at the assumptions and structures levels of society. This is in contrast to many current efforts which alter only the outcomes of the existing systems without changing the system itself. The Theory of Deep Change differentiates between two types of actions that must come together to create deep and lasting change: inner levers that act to change our underlying beliefs and values; and outer levers that act to change our structures, such as laws, tax systems or subsidies. It is easy to feel hopeless when confronted with the many interconnected risks our world faces today, the sources of which are so deeply rooted in our societies that they can seem impossible to overcome and difficult to imagine how we can change the outcome. Moreover, when we do want to change the negative outcomes, our natural reaction is to think about how to stop them. This results in goals and targets such as “limiting climate change” or “preventing biodiversity loss”. But our systems are not set in stone. This report shows that we do not need to settle for just stopping the worst impacts. Instead, we can aim to actively create a world we would wish to live in. It shows that it is possible to move beyond incremental changes and create a world that is not just free from disasters but also thriving. By redefining what we value and assume about the world, we can transform today’s interconnected risks into opportunities for collective well-being and resilience. It is possible to radically imagine a better world, believe in our power to achieve it and turn over a new leaf.
    UNBIS Thesaurus MULTILATERALISM
    NEOLIBERALISM
    Keyword Deep change
    Risks
    Transformation
    Mindsets
    Root cause
    Disasters
    Imaginaries
    Future vision
    Presentism
    Linear economy
    Anthropocentrism
    Unilateralism
    Well-being
    Long-termism
    Circular economy
    Nature's rights
    Sustainable future
    Delta of doom
    Hope
    Copyright Holder United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security
    Copyright Year 2025
    Copyright type Creative commons
    DOI 10.53324/AZOO7042
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    Created: Tue, 08 Apr 2025, 20:27:12 JST by Aarti Basnyat on behalf of UNU EHS