The short-term dynamics of conflict-driven displacement: Bayesian modeling of disaggregated data from Somalia

Zens, Gregor and Thalheimer, Lisa, (2024). The short-term dynamics of conflict-driven displacement: Bayesian modeling of disaggregated data from Somalia. The Annals of Applied Statistics, 1-16

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  • Sub-type Journal article
    Author Zens, Gregor
    Thalheimer, Lisa
    Title The short-term dynamics of conflict-driven displacement: Bayesian modeling of disaggregated data from Somalia
    Appearing in The Annals of Applied Statistics
    Publication Date 2024-09-19
    Place of Publication Shaker Heights
    Publisher Institute of Mathematical Statistics
    Start page 1
    End page 16
    Language eng
    Abstract Understanding the short-run dynamics of conflict and forced displacement is crucial for the design of effective policy responses, yet quantitative analyses in this realm are sparse. This is primarily due to the scarcity of high-frequency displacement data and methodological challenges arising when modeling imperfect data collected in conflict zones. Addressing both issues, we develop a Bayesian panel regression model to assess the short-term impact of conflict on displacement in Somalia, utilizing weekly panel data that encompasses 8 million displacements and 19,000 conflict events from 2017 to 2023. Results suggest a rapid and non-linear displacement response post-conflict, with significant heterogeneity in effects dependent on the nature of conflict events. In a displacement forecasting exercise, our model outperforms standard benchmarks, underscoring its potential for informing decision-makers in crisis scenarios.
    UNBIS Thesaurus CONFLICT
    SOMALIA
    DROUGHT
    Keyword Bayesian model
    Copyright Holder The Author(s)
    Copyright Year 2024
    Copyright type Creative commons
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    Created: Tue, 25 Feb 2025, 01:34:33 JST by Aarti Basnyat on behalf of UNU EHS