Understanding the role of climate change in disaster mortality: Empirical evidence from Nepal

Chapagain, Dipesh, Bharati, Luna, Mechler, Reinhard, K.C., Samir, Pflug, Georg and Borgemeister, Christian, (2024). Understanding the role of climate change in disaster mortality: Empirical evidence from Nepal. Climate Risk Managment, 46(100669), 1-13

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  • Sub-type Journal article
    Author Chapagain, Dipesh
    Bharati, Luna
    Mechler, Reinhard
    K.C., Samir
    Pflug, Georg
    Borgemeister, Christian
    Title Understanding the role of climate change in disaster mortality: Empirical evidence from Nepal
    Appearing in Climate Risk Managment
    Volume 46
    Issue No. 100669
    Publication Date 2024-11-13
    Place of Publication Amsterdam
    Publisher Elsevier
    Start page 1
    End page 13
    Language eng
    Abstract Climate-related disaster impacts, such as loss of human life as its most severe consequence, have been rising globally. Some studies attribute this increase to population growth, while others point to climate change as the primary cause. However, empirical evidence linking climate change to disaster impacts remains limited, particularly in the Global South. This study addresses the impact attribution question in Nepal, a low-income and highly disaster-prone country. We applied a robust regression-based method that accounts for the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability in flood and landslide mortality, using subnational scale empirical data from 1992 to 2021. Historically, flood and landslide mortality has been highest in central and eastern Nepal due to the stronger influence of the Indian monsoon. However, disaster impacts have surged in recent years in western Nepal, driven largely by an increase in extreme precipitation events. For example, a one standardized unit increase in maximum one-day precipitation increases flood mortality by 33%, and heavy rain days increases landslide mortality by 45%. In contrast, a one standardized unit increase in per capita income reduces landslide and flood mortality by 30% and 45%, respectively. While reductions in vulnerability have helped lower disaster mortality, population exposure has not played a significant role. Therefore, the rise in flood and landslide mortality, particularly in western Nepal, is primarily attributable to the increase in precipitation extremes linked to climate change. With climate change expected to further intensify such extremes, disaster mortality is likely to increase unless significant efforts are made to reduce vulnerability.
    UNBIS Thesaurus NEPAL
    Keyword Climate-related disaster
    Flood and landslide mortality
    Precipitation extremes
    Attribution
    Regression
    Copyright Holder The Authors
    Copyright Year 2024
    Copyright type Creative commons
    DOI 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100669
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    Created: Thu, 19 Dec 2024, 18:18:02 JST by Aarti Basnyat on behalf of UNU EHS